Monday, May 26, 2008

Clinton Still Beats McCain

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99.9% probability of winning
Mean of 313 electoral votes

0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 225 electoral votes

From yesterday’s analysis, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 99.9% probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. There were three new polls today that contribute to this match-up. Not much has changed.

After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 9,994 times (plus the House would give her the one tie), and McCain wins 5 times. Clinton still has a 99.9% probability of winning and McCain has a 0.1% probability of winning a general election held today.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 23 Sep 2007 to 23 May 2008, and including polls from the preceding 1 month (FAQ).

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