Wednesday, July 2, 2008

The Electoral Problem Obama

Original Link:

Obama won the Georgia Primary with 66 percent of the vote. Looks impressive. But keep in mind that roughly one third of Georgia's population is African America and the vast majority of blacks are Democrats. What happens in the general election? Current polls show John McCain leading by double digits with a very small percentage of undecided voters. Moreover, while just over one-third of Georgia's voters view McCain unfavorably, over half of Georgia voters view Obama unfavorably. This explains the low percentage of undecideds.

These numbers tell us that Obama will lose Georgia big. Kerry lost Georgia big, too, so it won't be because Georgia's white voters are racial bigots. Rather it is because the residents of Georgia don't like liberals who are perceived as weak on national security - especially northern liberals. On the other hand, Bill Clinton won Georgia (against Bush Senior) in the general election. And while Clinton lost Georgia in 1996, he lost by only 1.2 percentage points, a solid performance cast against the backdrop of the Republican take over of Congress in 1994.

No comments: