Thursday, August 7, 2008

Where’s The Magic Bump In Polls Obama?

Original Link:

By NancyA

Obama stalls in public polling and ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer asked this question, “If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn’t everything so good for Barack Obama?”

In a year when Bush’s approval rating is very low, the Democratic challenger, Barack Obama, can’t break the 50% mark in polls. He never received the “big bounce” post Hillary Clinton’s campaign suspension. More on that:

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold.

One of the things not mentioned is that Congress’ approval rating has gone down the toilet under the leadership of Pelosi and Reid. The Democratic-led Congress is a disappointment to the American people. Their rating has fallen below Bush’s approval rating, a dismal 14%.This is how Democrats and Republicans feel about Congress:

The most recent decline comes almost exclusively from Democrats, whose approval of Congress fell from 23% in June to 11% in July, while independents’ and Republicans’ views of Congress did not change much. As a result, Republicans are now slightly more likely than Democrats to approve of the job the Democratic-controlled Congress is doing (19% vs. 11%).

(And Congress is still laughable!)

Gallup’s director Frank Newport said this,

“What’s remarkable this summer is the stability of this race,”
“In a broad sense, it is similar to previous elections.”

(I am glad something is stable, Obama seems to flip flop everyday….)

When the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections are compared the following comparisons are drawn.

In Gallup’s last national poll prior to the 2004 party conventions, for example, John F. Kerry led President Bush 47 percent to 43 percent. In 2000, also in Gallup’s last national poll prior to the party conventions, Bush led former Vice President Al Gore 46 percent to 41 percent.

And Gallup has this to say about demographics in the race.

Three demographic groups have generally kept Obama ahead in the past two months: African-Americans, youth and Hispanics. But a lead based on those groups is a tenuous one. The youth vote, notorious for not meeting expectations, must turn out in significantly higher numbers than in past elections. Obama must continue to win the black vote nearly unanimously and still turn out new African-American voters. McCain must continue to underperform with Hispanics by about 10 percentage points compared to Bush in the summer of 2004.

(What’s the matter Obama can’t count on those college kids? And remember your best friend Donna Brazille told the true Democratic base to stay home!)

The real reason Obama has failed to get above the 50% mark is his inability to increase his support in key demographic groups. The Gallup report has something to say about it:

If there is a primary explanation as to why the race has remained close this summer, it is that Obama has failed to make gains overall with white voters, who still cast about three in four ballots on Election Day. (Are you starting to be sorry you called people in Pennsylvania bitter yet?)

As Gore did in 2000, Obama nearly splits white women and loses white men by a large margin, according to an aggregate of polling in June and July 2008 and polling in 2000 by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Depending upon the week in June or July, by Gallup’s measure, Obama has roughly fluctuated between splitting or, at worst, trailing by about 5 percentage points with white women. In that same period, Obama has won only between 34 percent and 37 percent of white men.

In general — and with men in particular — Pew’s data shows that Obama’s gains with young whites compared to Gore in 2000 are offset by a weakness with older whites.

Obama also seems to have hit a ceiling with Hispanics. Latino support fluctuates between 57 percent, by the latest weekly measure, to 68 percent the week before — roughly the margin of Hispanic support that has marked the entire summer, by Gallup’s measure.

(Is your head hurting yet, Obama?)

What all this suggests is a general election that is much tighter than many analysts predicted and defined by far more stubborn levels of support.

As it stands, on Aug. 3 the RealClearPolitics average of national polling had 46.6 percent of the public supporting Obama, putting him narrowly ahead of McCain. Exactly two months earlier, on June 3, that same average had Obama at the exact same level of support — 46.6 percent.

So sorry Obama. There will be no”bounce” this year in the polls. The Democratic-led Congress isn’t getting it either.

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