Monday, July 21, 2008

Example of the media’s ‘cherry-picking’ of data to favor Obama

Original LinK:

Much has been written and said about the ability of Barack Obama to “attract Independents”, and how that translates into good news for his electability in November. But no one ever mentions that there is a huge difference between “Independents” and “Moderates”. Independents, as defined by the exits polls, are all over the map in terms of ideology, and include not just people who are “moderates” (that is, those who think that Democrats are too liberal and Republicans too conservative), but also “third” parties (Greens, Libertarians), individuals who are disaffected from the political system, and those on the ideological fringes who think the Democrats and Republicans are too “centrist.”

And while Obama has done very well among “Independents”, Hillary has done better among the “moderates” who will be the deciding force in the election.

An examination of exit polls from eight key primary states (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Tennessee) show that

1) On average, “Independent” voters were 50% more likely to vote for Obama than Hillary.
2) On average, “Moderate” voters were 12% more likely to vote for Hillary than Obama
3) In 7 of the 8 states, far more voters self-identified as “Moderate” (average 40% range 34-49%) than “Independent” (average 18%, range 11-22%). (New Hampshire was excluded, because while its percentage of moderates –36% - was within the ‘normal’ range, its percentage of ‘independents – 44% — was a clear outlier.).

In other words, in terms of electability, the media’s emphasis on “Independents” and failure to examine the “moderate” vote which determines elections in swing states, is simply one more example of the media’s ‘cherry-picking’ of data to favor Obama.

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