Pundits Versus Reality

Original Link: http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/2008/03/28/campaign-2008-pundits-versus-reality/

Peter Daou sent this to me today and I am posting it here with his Permission

Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality

Please feel free to post in full or to send your feedback. Thanks!
Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday and the race will be over

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday – and wins them by double digits

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th and the race will be over

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th – and she wins Ohio by double digits

THE PUNDITS
Despite Hillary Clinton’s big victories on March 4th, “the math” works decisively against her and the race is essentially over

THE REALITY
The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination and either candidate can win

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over

THE REALITY
The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don’t count; therefore the race is essentially over

THE REALITY
The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama’s narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over

THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton’s situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key state of PA, where she is running strong

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton’s campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton’s supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls

THE PUNDITS
There is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race

THE REALITY
Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the race as Hillary Clinton

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the “kitchen sink” at Barack Obama

THE REALITY
Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day

THE PUNDITS
For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to “overturn the will of the people”

THE REALITY
The will of the people is split and both candidates need - and are making their case to - super delegates

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama

THE REALITY
Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton

THE PUNDITS
Florida and Michigan’s voters won’t be heard and their delegates won’t be seated all because of complicated procedural roadblocks

THE REALITY
Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he’ll lose his small advantage if they count

THE PUNDITS
Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy

THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard - and fair - to win with the help of millions of dedicated supporters

http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/03/28/151845

Followup from Peter:

All - as a follow up to my post on the pundits versus reality, here’s a very interesting analysis from Marc Ambinder…

How To Count The Popular Vote
28 Mar 2008 02:50 pm

The hyperintelligent Jay Cost at RearClearPolitics has produced for us a most helpful spreadsheet computing the various popular vote scenarios.

But this paragraph, is, to me, a very crucial point that both Clinton and Obama campaigns would rather ignore:

We have a large number of unknown factors. For many of them, we have very little idea what values they will ultimately take. What we do know is that small changes in several of them could induce large changes in the vote count. This makes it extremely difficult to be as precise as many commentators have been. We need to be wary of all the uncertainty we face here.
So — my fairly conservative calculation has Clinton netting about 446,000 votes between now and June 3. Under all scenarios that exclude Florida and Michigan votes — and count the votes of Washington’s primary — Obama still retains a popular vote lead of not more than 330,000 — or an advantage of less than one and a half percent.

Under a scenario that includes the Florida and Michigan votes for Clinton, gives Obama all of the uncommitted Michigan votes, estimates the votes for all the caucus states and includes the Washington primary, Clinton wins by about 16,000 votes — or about a tenth of one percent.

Which scenario is “right?” Under DNC rules, until the credentials committee figures out which delegations to seat, Florida and Michigan do not exist. But the voters in those states certainly do in the existential sense — and if we’re answering the question by figuring out how many Democrats voted for Obama versus how many Democrats voted for Clinton.

Obama supporters will anchor their estimates in the worldview most hospitable to Obama’s nomination, and Clinton’s supporters will similarly find ways to justify including Florida and Michigan before it is DNC-legal to do so.

The media may be called upon to take a stand — especially since the superdelegates tend to listen to the media more than other entities — and the most reasonable answer may well be — well, it depends on who you talk to.

Are there historical precedents? Well, Democrats like to count every vote. So — advantage Hillary? But there has to be some tempering factor to account for Obama’s name not being on the Michigan ballot. Ok, but then there has to be some tempering factor to account for the fact that Obama’s campaign made the decision to stay off the Michigan ballot as least as much because they feared losing the state to Clinton as they wanted to make a statement to Iowans about the integrity of the calendar process. Obama’s campaign also made the strategic decision to contest caucuses; the Clinton campaign dumbly decided to avoid them. If they had spent a comparable amount of money and resources in the caucus states, Obama’s margin of victory would have been lower and he certainly would have less of a delegate lead.

These are all arguments… all persuasive in their own way… and they don’t get me any clearer towards the answering the question about which votes to count and which votes to ignore.